📊 STATISTICS · CHAPTER 1
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CHAPTER 1 · DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS

Reading the competitor data

In Module 0 you saw that competitor prices are a cloud, not a point. Now we learn to describe that cloud precisely — picture it, find its centre, measure its spread, locate any value inside it — and turn the description into an actual answer to "what should we charge?"

By the end of Chapter 1 you will be able to

  • Tell population from sample, and classify any variable by type and level.
  • Build and read a frequency table, histogram and stem-and-leaf plot — and name the shape.
  • Choose between mean, median and mode, and know which an outlier will fool.
  • Measure spread with range, IQR and standard deviation.
  • Build a box plot, find percentiles and z-scores, and flag outliers with the 1.5×IQR rule.
  • Apply the Empirical Rule and Chebyshev's theorem — and defend a price.
SECTION 1.1 · WHAT DID WE COLLECT?

Know your data before you describe it

Set the scene

One afternoon, thirty Margherita prices.

You walked Geneva and recorded the price of a Margherita at 30 pizzerias. Those 30 are a sample from the population of all Geneva pizzerias. Any number you compute from the 30 — the average, say — is a statistic; the unknown true value across all pizzerias would be a parameter. This distinction runs through the whole course.

sample → statistic (you can compute it)  ·  population → parameter (usually unknown)
Classify it

Every column you collect has a type. Tap to check yourself.

Knowing a variable's type decides which display and which statistic are even legal. Tap each card to flip it.

WHAT KIND OF VARIABLE?
Quantitative = numbers you can do arithmetic on. Qualitative = categories. Level = how much structure the values carry.
SECTION 1.2 · PICTURE THE DATA

A table of 30 numbers tells you nothing

Why we draw first

Shape is the first thing to see — and you can only see it in a picture.

Before any average, plot the data. A histogram groups prices into bins and shows how many fall in each. Drag the bin width and watch the story change — too wide hides detail, too narrow turns it into noise.

HISTOGRAM BUILDER
Each bar counts the pizzerias whose price falls in that band.

The tail stretches to the right — a few pricey tourist spots. That is a right-skewed distribution, and it will matter the moment we pick an average.

Stem-and-leaf

The display that keeps every original number.

A histogram shows shape but loses the actual values. A stem-and-leaf plot shows the shape and every price: the stem is the tens digit, each leaf is a ones digit.

Read it sideways: it is a histogram you can still read the raw data off.

SECTION 1.3 · THE CENTRE

Three "averages" — and the one that lies

The three measures

Mean, median, mode — they answer different questions.

  • Mean — the balance point; add them up, divide by n. Uses every value.
  • Median — the middle value when sorted. Ignores how extreme the extremes are.
  • Mode — the most common value. The only "average" that works for categories too.

For symmetric data they roughly agree. For skewed data they split — and the gap is the lesson.

WATCH AN OUTLIER MOVE THE AVERAGE
mean
median
mode
Gold line = mean, teal line = median. Watch which one the outlier drags.

The mean chases extremes; the median resists them. Report the median when a few big values would otherwise mislead.

SECTION 1.4 · THE SPREAD

Same average, very different markets

Why centre is half the story

Two neighbourhoods can share a mean and feel nothing alike.

Below, Pâquis and Rive both average CHF 18. But one is tightly clustered and one is all over the map. The standard deviation (the typical distance from the mean, from Module 0) and the interquartile range put a number on that difference.

COMPARE THE SPREAD
Pâquis · SD
Rive · SD
Identical means (CHF 18). The standard deviation exposes the risk the mean hid.

Three rulers for spread, weakest to strongest: range (max − min, fooled by one outlier), IQR (the middle 50%, resistant), and standard deviation (uses every value).

SECTION 1.5 · POSITION & THE BOX PLOT

Where does one price sit in the crowd?

Five numbers, one picture

The five-number summary and the box plot.

Sort the data and you get five landmarks: minimum, Q₁, median, Q₃, maximum. The box plot draws them: a box from Q₁ to Q₃ (the middle 50%), a line at the median, whiskers to the data, and dots for outliers.

THE BOX PLOT OF OUR 30 PRICES
min
Q₁
median
Q₃
max
The red dot is an outlier — beyond the upper fence Q₃ + 1.5 × IQR.
z-score: how unusual is a price?

Standardise it.

A z-score says how many standard deviations a value sits from the mean: z = (x − mean) ÷ s. Type a competitor's price and see.

z-SCORE CALCULATOR
CHF

A z near 0 is typical; |z| above ~2 is genuinely unusual. z-scores let you compare positions across different datasets on one ruler.

SECTION 1.6 · TWO RULES OF THUMB

From mean and SD to "what fraction lies where"

The Empirical Rule

If the data is bell-shaped: 68 – 95 – 99.7.

Suppose your pizzeria's daily covers (customers served) are bell-shaped with mean 120 and standard deviation 15. The Empirical Rule says ≈68% of days fall within ±1 SD, ≈95% within ±2, ≈99.7% within ±3. Slide to see the band.

THE 68–95–99.7 RULE
covers between
Empirical Rule
Chebyshev (≥)
Bell-shaped data — the Empirical Rule applies.
Chebyshev's theorem

If you can't assume bell-shaped, you still get a guarantee.

Chebyshev makes no shape assumption: at least (1 − 1/k²) of any data lies within k standard deviations. Weaker than 68–95–99.7, but always true. Compare the two columns above as you slide.

within k SD: Empirical (bell only) vs. Chebyshev 1 − 1/k² (any shape)

The Empirical Rule is a generous estimate that needs a bell; Chebyshev is a cautious guarantee that needs nothing.

SECTION 1.7 · THE DECISION

So what do we charge?

Description → decision

You can now defend a number instead of guessing one.

The competitor data, described: a typical price (the median), a middle-of-the-market band (Q₁ to Q₃, where half of all pizzerias sit), and a clear outlier you should ignore. Pick your Margherita price and see exactly where it lands among the competition.

Set a price in Module 0 and it will reappear here.
SET YOUR PRICE AGAINST THE MARKET

"Around the median, inside the middle 50%" is a position you can justify to your partner and your bank. That is the whole job of descriptive statistics: turning a cloud into a defensible decision.